The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting, scheduled for this Friday, is expected to announce an extension in oil benchmarks, which could help maintain crude oil prices at these improved levels.
Oil Benchmarks, WTI crude oil, and Brent crude oil are holding steady at crucial levels last witnessed in mid-April due to the anticipated production cuts by OPEC+
Moreover, reduced oil benchmark supply from regions like Nigeria and Canada could further support potential price increases. However, recent concerns have arisen due to the Chinese manufacturing PMI (Caixin) slipping into contractionary territory, leading to a negative impact on oil benchmarks. The focus now shifts to the US ISM manufacturing PMIs and JOLTS data, which could provide insights into the job market ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release. Fortunately, the ‘soft landing’ rhetoric post-core PCE last week has eased recessionary fears, benefiting crude oil prices.
Oil bulls are eagerly awaiting the weekly API crude stock change figure, which may indicate another drop in oil benchmarks. While the daily ICE Brent and WTI crude oil charts show overbought conditions, there’s still potential for further upside. However, analysts predict some consolidation in the coming week, considering the fundamental dynamics at play.
In light of the current confluence of factors, traders are urged to exercise caution in their trading bias during this data-heavy week
Retail traders are currently NET SHORT on Crude Oil, with 56% holding short positions, indicating a short-term upside outlook from a contrarian perspective.
Overall, the trajectory of oil benchmarks, WTI and Brent crude oil, will heavily depend on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and the economic data releases in the upcoming week. Market participants are closely monitoring these developments to gauge the potential movements in crude oil prices.
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