Russian scholar and Charles University professor, Sergei Medvedev, shared insights on the Nagorno-Karabakh situation and its implications for Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus.
Sergei Medvedev noted that the recent conflict won’t drastically alter the security landscape, deeming it a brief, anticipated clash
Sergei Medvedev observed a trend of Russia ceding influence to formidable actors like Turkey and China, underscoring Russia’s weakened position due to events in Ukraine and overextension. Despite residual Russian influence in Georgian politics, Sergei Medvedev warned of ongoing pressure through military and hybrid means. He emphasized the enduring strength of Russia, citing its historical dominance in the region. Sergei Medvedev explained that Armenia’s recent setbacks stem from its inability to reunify, contrasting Azerbaijan’s strategic approach in the past two decades.
Regarding the Ukraine-Russia situation, Sergei Medvedev believed in Ukraine’s potential to prevail but cautioned about a delicate balance
He foresaw a transformed Russia in the event of Ukrainian victory, drawing parallels to historical instances of Russia’s defeat leading to positive political change. However, he also envisioned a prolonged decay for Russia, akin to scenarios in Iran or Venezuela.
Looking ahead, Sergei Medvedev envisioned potential semi-isolation for Russia, with limited Western engagement. He predicted Russia’s survival for another few decades, driven by global oil demand, but recognized an impending shift with the world’s move away from oil. Overall, Sergei Medvedev painted a nuanced picture of Russia’s future, highlighting both prospects for transformation and the likelihood of protracted decline.
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