Russia and China

US, devastated by Russia and China’s courtship of North Korea

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Significant and concerning events include recent trips by North Korean officials to Russia, the upcoming visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Vladivostok, Russia, for the Eastern Economic Forum, and the visit by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Pyongyang. Kim and Vladimir Putin are anticipated to talk about the transfer of artillery shells and anti-tank weapons to Russia in support of that country’s conflict in Ukraine. Russia is anticipated to deliver an odd combination of food assistance, nuclear submarines, and satellite technology in exchange.

Russia and China
The future supply of Russian weapons to North Korea will also definitely be a topic of conversation between the two presidents. In the Pacific, China and North Korea are planning combined naval operations with Russia. (Photo: Flipboard)

Russia to organize joint naval exercises in the Pacific with China and North Korea

In the report from The Messenger, the two presidents will undoubtedly talk about future Russian weaponry supplies to North Korea as well. Russia is also attempting to organize joint naval exercises in the Pacific with China and North Korea.

Of course, the significance of all these gatherings is that they might continue Russia’s assault in Ukraine. That is already really bad. The meetings have even more significance, though, because it is anticipated that the covert conversations will center on enhancing military cooperation and mutual support in Asia.

The Kim-Putin meeting is simply a portion of the narrative. The meetings between North Korea and Russia have a third party, one that is the dominant actor: Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s fingerprints are all over them. China aims to aid Russia in its conflict and use both North Korea and Russia to further its own strategic goals- Russia and China.

The first gain for China is that the conflict has escalated into a serious issue in Europe, capturing the interest of the majority of Western political leaders, the intelligence community, and Western militaries. Second, the conflict assures that Western conventional weapons flow to Kiev, rapidly depleting stocks. The United States is a long way from being able to meet Ukraine’s enormous armament needs while also fulfilling the needs of friends and partners like Taiwan and preserving the U.S. arsenal.  Third, the conflict confirms Putin’s reliance on Xi and shows to the world that Putin is Xi’s slave. Far more than the other way around, China needs Russia. Xi must be thinking in private, “What is Russia good for?”and part of the solution might be to show off China’s dominance and act as a factotum in diplomatic and military affairs.

The fourth and most significant point is that the meetings between North Korea and Russia are highly likely to include a discussion of how North Korea may help Russia and China divert attention from the United States and its allies at a vital moment, just before China invades Taiwan or takes action against Japan or the Philippines. A Korean Peninsula crisis would put more strain on the US. It would include the intelligence community and military forces and receive significant attention from the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

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There is no reason for conflict between North and South Korea

China might mobilize the People’s Liberation Army following a period of North Korean military activity, which could include a mobilization near the South Korean border or an increase in missile launches against Japan. If this happens, it’s possible that U.S. intelligence community warnings would be overlooked or disregarded.

There is no reason for conflict between North and South Korea. A serious crisis would serve China’s geopolitical goals by deflecting American focus. Such a diversion would force the United States to deal with the Korean situation before a potential Chinese strike on Taiwan, especially when coupled with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.  Prior to deploying its army and navy against the third front—Taiwan and/or the Philippines—Xi would like to present the U.S. intelligence community with a multi-front war challenge. The destruction of semiconductor chips by Taiwanese manufacturers during a conflict with China would be another component of the South Korea-Taiwan nexus. The United States and its allies would be plunged into a severe and protracted economic and security catastrophe if reports of Samsung chip production sabotage are confirmed.

The North Korea-China-Russia axis’s impending blossoming must be anticipated by the Biden administration as it will hamper America’s strategic posture. It is difficult to predict the North Korean wild card, but the most recent events demand a swift U.S. and allied response to make sure the West is ready.

The United States must ensure that Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Taiwan are well prepared to respond to any future crises or wars. For instance, the United States, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines should set up a “Five Eyes”-style intelligence-sharing network in the Pacific right now.

There is a lot of work to accomplish. America still has a ways to go, and time is running out.

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